On March 21, French senators will vote on the final ratification of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which has already been provisionally in force for seven years.
Published on March 21, 2024, at 12:00 am (Paris)
Offrir l’article Ajouter à vos sélectionsFive years on, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is back. The controversial trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Canada has returned to the forefront of public debate, fueled by two current events: As is the case every five years, international trade issues have entered the European election campaign and on Thursday, March 21, the French Sénat is due to vote on ratification of the treaty. In the event of a negative vote, the future of the agreement would be seriously compromised.
It is a free trade treaty between the EU and Canada. This dry 2,344-page bill is difficult for non-specialists to understand, but it essentially provides for three types of measures:
CETA, finalized in 2014, went through several years of turbulence before eventually receiving the green light from heads of state and European MPs in 2017. Since then, 95% of its measures have come into force, starting with the reduction in customs duties.
However, the story is not over yet. As some of the agreement's clauses encroach on member states' jurisdictions, their national parliaments must be consulted before its final and complete application. Yet, seven years on, only 17 out of 27 parliaments have given their consent. For the other 10, governments have dragged out the process, probably for fear of being turned down by their legislators.
Such is the case with France. After ratifying CETA by the skin of its teeth in the Assemblée Nationale in summer 2019 – which opened an unprecedented rift in the presidential majority – for the past five years, the government has been reluctant to send the text back to the Sénat, where it risks failure.
This didn't take into consideration the Communist senators, who took advantage of their right of initiative to force the issue to be examined on March 21, during the time they have control of the parliamentary agenda. This is their way of reminding the government of its 2021 promise, when Minister Delegate in Charge of Foreign Trade and Attractiveness Franck Riester confirmed that "the Sénat will have the opportunity to state its opinion."
If a majority of senators reject CETA on March 21, the treaty will be sent back to the Assemblée for a new vote. Unlike in 2019, the current balance in the Assemblée Nationale could result in a no vote, definitively burying ratification on the French side. The European Commission would then suspend the provisional application of the agreement throughout Europe – probably signaling its end.
Conversely, if the Sénat votes in favor of the treaty on March 21, it will be officially ratified by France. In Italy, for example, the far-right government is clearly opposed to the treaty, while in Cyprus, MPS already rejected it for the first time in 2020.
Should the EU-Canada agreement successfully clear this parliamentary hurdle, it would then enter fully and definitively into force. This would enable the activation of the CETA's final unimplemented components, notably the much-maligned business-state arbitration mechanism.
For the past 10 years, CETA has been the subject of heated debate between its supporters, who are betting on its economic benefits, and its opponents, who point to the risks it poses to European agriculture, health and the environment.
The main argument on the pro-CETA side is that the agreement can boost transatlantic trade, enabling European companies to conquer new markets and create jobs.
Partner service Learn French with Gymglish Thanks to a daily lesson, an original story and a personalized correction, in 15 minutes per day. Try for freeThe first assessments do indeed show a significant increase in trade between the two sides since 2017, of 37% (+51% for goods and +10% for services). But this growth is largely explained by inflation, according to a recent report by the Veblen Institute, a leading environmentalist NGO, which is hostile to CETA and showed that in volume terms, the rise in trade in goods was much more limited (+9%).
Cattle farmers have always been among the main opponents of CETA. They feared that lower tariffs on Canadian meat imports would lead to unfair competition.
But so far, the predicted "flood" has not materialized. Very few Canadian breeders have decided to invest in exporting to the European market, where standards are significantly different. In 2023, they exported just 1.4 million tonnes of beef to Europe, barely 2% of the volume permitted by CETA. For France, the figures are insignificant: only 29 tonnes of Canadian beef were imported in 2023. But some fear that the trend could be reversed in the future, particularly if the Asian market dries up: Canadians could then become interested in investing in export channels to Europe.
Conversely, European livestock producers have already benefited from CETA, significantly increasing their beef exports to Canada from 2 million to 14 million tonnes in seven years. The same is true for European cheese producers, who are making full use of their new export quota of 19 million tonnes (just over 1% of their worldwide exports).
Back in 2017, a commission of experts alerted the French government to the risk that CETA would facilitate the import of Canadian agricultural products that do not meet European health and environmental standards. Indeed, the agreement contains no "mirror clause" requiring Canadian exporters to conform to European standards: They therefore still have the option of feeding their beef certain animal meal or administering antibiotics.
While certain treatments are banned (growth hormones, ractopamine, genetically modified organisms), an audit conducted by the European Commission in 2022, which pointed to "shortcomings" in the supervision of the hormone-free beef sector, has reactivated doubts about the seriousness of Canadian veterinary controls.
In 2017, experts commissioned by the French government estimated that CETA's impact on the environment would be slightly unfavorable, due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions brought about by the rise in trade and the absence of strong climate commitments in the agreement to counterbalance it.
According to the Veblen Institute, this prediction has come true, with an intensification of trade in polluting products, such as fertilizers or oil from tar sands.
If it comes fully into force, CETA will establish a special jurisdiction to deal with complaints from Canadian companies that feel aggrieved by the decisions of their host state in the EU, and vice versa. This arbitration system, the Investment Court System (ICS), was designed to protect multinational companies against expropriation. However, according to its critics, it could also be used by businesses to challenge health and environmental legislation unfavorable to their interests.
To avert this risk, the EU has extensively reformed the original mechanism and tried to clarify certain ambiguous treaty terms. However, the ICS still poses problems of neutrality and independence. Environmental groups feel it poses too great a threat to states' climate action, failing to include a genuine "climate veto," which would prevent disputes over environmental issues.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.
Lecture du Monde en cours sur un autre appareil.
Vous pouvez lire Le Monde sur un seul appareil à la fois
Continuer à lire iciCe message s’affichera sur l’autre appareil.
Votre abonnement n’autorise pas la lecture de cet article
Pour plus d’informations, merci de contacter notre service commercial.
Subscribe to help support the work of our entire newsroom.
Why are you seeing this message ?
You have opted to refuse the use of cookies while browsing our website, including personalized advertising cookies.
The content of this website is the work of over 530 journalists who deliver high-quality, reliable and comprehensive news and innovative online services every day. This work is supported by additional revenue from advertising and subscriptions.
Already a subscriber ? Sign in